Four consecutive pivotal weekends lie in wait as the Cheltenham Festival draws ever closer, and here in Leopardstown tonight there’ll be more than a couple of owners dreaming of heading to Gloucestershire in mid-March with a tilt at weekend Festival sponsor Boylesports’ 100,000 euro bonus still intact – that’s a cash incentive put up by the County Meath firm for any horse taking Saturday’s feature handicap hurdle (2.45pm live on RTE2) that goes on to taste victory in any race at Cheltenham itself.
It’s no wonder plenty are keen at getting their hands on the dough; just 12 months ago Final Approach saw off Call The Police in a Leopardstown one-two for Willie Mullins, and then went on to Cheltenham to land the County Hurdle off a mark of 139 in the hands of Ruby Walsh.
A little further back you only need to turn the pages to 2003 to find Xenophon also getting the job done, with a win in the Coral Cup supplementing success at the Foxrock track.
History lesson over – who’s it going to be that lands the spoils in 2012?
With 30 horses set to line up we’re not exactly short on options, and it makes sense to bet with the firms doing the decent thing and offering punters the extra place each way, namely Bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, Paddy Power or Skybet.
Bookmakers think the key piece of form came over course and distance at the Christmas meeting when Adrian Murray’s Cass Bligh saw off Citizenship, Scottish Boogie and Cothrom Na Feinne among others (all four run again).
On the back of that Charles Byrnes’ charge Scottish Boogie finds himself the 7/1 clear market leader after being hit with just a two pound rise, but it inevitably means there’s value to be had elsewhere in the race, and the one I thought worth taking out of that aforementioned piece of form was the fourth placed Cothrom Na Feinne.
He was having only his second run back from a long layoff that day and nearly made all under John Cullen, eventually beaten four lengths.
Jockey Tom Doyle has been among the winners this week, scoring aboard Burrenbridge Lodge at Gowran Park on Thursday afternoon, and he takes over in the saddle here on a horse who could easily figure under a light weight at odds of 20/1 with Paddy Power.
What a story it would be for his veteran trainer Des McDonogh if he could land this; he was responsible for the great Monksfield back in the day, and it’d be great to see him hit the headlines once again.
Surely Cothrom Na Feinne would be shorter if trained by a more fashionable yard?
The other one I like is also a huge price, and in Willie Mullins’ Quiscover Fontaine we can back a lightly weighted, in-form, recent course and distance winner, who’ll love the ground and benefits from a hurdles mark (126) significantly lower than his chase rating (142).
He dug deep to see off the re-opposing group of Pires, Dur Ar An Ol, Wilde Wit Pleasure And Beau Michael in a race he was very much entitled to win at the weights at Christmas time, but that confidence booster will have done him a world of good, and it’s not hard to see why Mullins has put his chasing career on hold while he can compete from a mark more than a stone lower over the smaller obstacles.
The winner of four of his seven starts over hurdles Quiscover Fontaine deserves respect, especially with in-form David Casey up top bidding to add to his impressive Thyestes Chase success on On His Own for Mullins on Thursday afternoon.
Casey proved his versatility with a win on the Flat last week, winning a maiden on Charlie Swan’s Prince Of Fire at Dundalk.
It’d be no surprise to see his mount here outperform a quote of 25/1 from Boylesports.
At Cheltenham, aside from the silent battle to see who can don the most garish pair of corduroy trousers (lime and mustard are personal favourites), there’s also the small matter of a mighty day’s racing, and sticking with the big price theme I’m having a few quid each way on the moody but talented Tartak in Channel 4′s first live race at 2.05pm.
Almost everything else in the race has better recent form claims, not least improver Aerial, but Tartak didn’t come to be rated 159 by accident, and as a previous course and distance winner who’s been competing at the top table for a long time he’s entitled to be in the mix if he can bring his ‘A’ game to the table.
The blinkers which made him sulk like a reluctant schoolboy in the Peterborough Chase are unsurprisingly dispensed with, and if his recent wind op has had a positive effect then 16/1 could be a monster price.
Lest we forget this is a horse who’s been placed in 13 of his 25 chases, is still only nine years of age, and has a handy racing weight (11.3) due to the presence of Poquelin.
Yes it is a leap of faith, but one that can hopefully be fully justified by an improved showing.
Back him each way at 16′s with any of Boylesports, Paddy Power or Victor Chandler.
In the valuable 3m 1f Argento Chase at 2.35pm I’m far from convinced Arkle winner Captain Chris is going to see out this extended trip, and although dangers appear throughout the field via the fragile Diamond Harry, enigmatic Tidal Bay (placed in this a year ago) and Cheltenham lover Midnight Chase, the one to carry my cash is Paul Webber’s Time For Rupert in the hands of Denis O’Regan.
He’s a very thorough stayer, proven on the track, who won his first two starts over fences and bounced back to form in emphatic style in a lesser race at Newbury latest.
In my eyes he’s the one they all have to beat, and the 7/2 with William Hill is fair.
There are some very good young horses on display in the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle at 3.10pm, chief among them favourite Broadbackbob.
He has looked very smart in two starts for Nicky Henderson, beating subsequent three time winner Cinders And Ashes at Ascot on his debut for the stable, before winning in little more than a canter at Newbury in December.
He has to concede weight to most of these, but it’ll take a good one to lower his colours, and you’d imagine Andrew Tinkler will be enjoying this opportunity with Barry Geraghty busy at Doncaster.
Broadbackbob looks a solid option at 7/4 with Betfred, Ladbrokes or Victor Chandler.
Lastly, one for Twitter follower Zack Gascoigne who’s off to Donny tomorrow and needs a winner. (follow me @TomsTips)
I thought Corkage could follow up his recent wins back over hurdles in the 2.20pm for Reveleys Keith and James.
Predictably the handicapper has done him no favours (up 12 to 127 over hurdles) after two recent successes, but his course and distance win over timber was supplemented by an easy success over fences at Southwell, and in the form of his life he’ll be hard to peg back.
The 5/2 with Skybet or Bet365 looks reasonable.
Good luck!
Saturday’s best bets from Cheltenham, Doncaster and Leopardstown:
2.05 Cheltenham – Murphy Group Chase (Handicap) – 3 Tartak (each way) @ 16/1 ( Boylesports, Paddy Power or Victor Chandler)
2.20 Doncaster – Money Off Your Sky Bill At Skybet Handicap Hurdle – 3 Corkage (win) @ 5/2 (Bet365 or Skybet)
2.35 Cheltenham – Argento Chase – 4 Time For Rupert (win) @ 7/2 (William Hill)
2.45 Leopardstown – Boylesports.com Hurdle (Extended Handicap) – 11 Quiscover Fontaine (each way) @ 25/1 (Boylesports)
2.45 Leopardstown – Boylesports.com Hurdle (Extended Handicap) – 23 Cothrom Na Feinne (each way) @ 20/1 (Paddy Power)
3.10 Cheltenham – Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle – 1 Broadbackbob (win) @ 7/4 (Betfred, Ladbrokes or Victor Chandler)
